Dna Testing And Law Enforcement Officers Essay - 1825 Words

DNA forensics is a division of forensic science that focuses on the use of genetic material in criminal investigation to answer questions pertaining to legal situations, including criminal and civil cases. Through DNA testing, law enforcement officers are able to identify human remains or the individual responsible for a crime. DNA testing is a highly advanced scientific process that involves replicating the human DNA sequence to create a genetic map of an individual. Because of its reliability, DNA testing has become a significant factor in criminal cases. However, it has also been identified as having the potential to violate privacy and constitutional rights. The DNA identification process consists of five stages. These five stages include isolation, quantification, polymerase chain reaction, short tandem polymerase chain reaction, and interpretation. Isolation refers to the extraction of DNA from the nucleus of tissue cells. After extraction, scientists quantify the DNA sample by ensuring that it is at least one billionth of a gram in size. If the sample is smaller the isolation process must be repeated. Next, through polymerase chain reaction, the single strand of DNA is split down the middle into two pieces and replicated to create a larger sample. Next, through short tandem polymerase chain reaction, smaller sections of the DNA sequence are replicated. This allows scientists to interpret the DNA and create a genetic profile of the individual from whom the original DNAShow MoreRelatedTechnology And Science By Law Enforcement1653 Words   |  7 Pagesscience, and engineering to matters of law,† (2014). The emphasis here is the use of technology and science by law enforcement officers and agencies and is accepted and recognized by the criminal justice system. It is seen as scientific technology or Criminalistics, (Dempsey Forst, 2013). 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The PBS documentary: The Central Park Five, demonstrates two of the most common misconduct issues that the criminal justice professionals deal with nobleRead MoreThe Evolution of Warrantless Searches With Alcohol, Blood, And DNA With the creation of the2200 Words   |  9 Pages The Evolution of Warrantless Searches With Alcohol, Blood, And DNA With the creation of the First Congress, framers manifested the Fourth Amendment to provide sufficient privacy standards for the citizens of the United States of America. Framers upheld the 4th Amendment to sustain a functioning government-governed relationship, where officials respect individuals’ privacy and rights. During the First Congress, framers explicitly granted, â€Å"the right of the people to be secureRead MoreWrongful Convictions Essay Examples1456 Words   |  6 Pagesconvictions have been overturned and as a result of DNA evidence, seventeen people who were wrongfully convicted have been released from death row. 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I Am A Master Of My Own Destiny, By The United States Of...

In the United States of America, there are over 300 million people. Each one of these people have heard messages that tell them that they are in control. Whether it’s their own lives or those around them; Americans are bred with the idea that complete control is possible. This idea is not a new concept for Americans. In fact, Americans have had overinflated ideas about control since we decided that it was necessary for us to control the rest of the nation via Manifest Destiny. The reason that I choose to focus on Americanized control as my final narrative is because it is something that I’ve grown familiar with in my life. It’s always the same kinds of people buying into it and being lead astray to the troubles that come with having such a strong desire for control. In fact, I was once a believer in that ideology. I once thought that I was the master of my own destiny, but I was wrong. As I got older and time went on, every single thing that I’m writing no w is everything that I’ve seen in others. In other words, knowing that a person has no control over their life is something that I understand intensely. I understand it so well that I can breakdown some aspects of the type of control that affect Americans like me. These characteristics of control are: the punishment of those who seemingly lack control, that planning is a placebo and therefore does nothing, and working hard amounts to nothing. Control is sold to people on the idea that it’s achievable by all and onlyShow MoreRelatedEssay on Who Am I?: Racial Identity in A Raisin in the Sun1596 Words   |  7 Pagesas a child during the 1970s in Lynwood, a predominantly African American neighborhood of South Central Los Angeles, I never realized the differences between my playmates and myself. Although my mother and I eventually moved to the suburbs, my father remained there. 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How we find our own personality takes a lot of work and a lot of soul searching. I know for myself, I cannot judge my personality only from the Five Factor Model (FFM). Yes, the FFM is a good predicament of our personality, but it does not further explain why we get such scores. What I mean by thisRead MoreBirmingham Jail Letter Essay4668 Words   |  19 Pagesjail, I came across your recent statement calling our present activities unwise and untimely. Seldom, if ever, do I pause to answer criticism of my work and ideas. If I answer all of the criticisms that cross my desk, my secretaries would have time for little else, and I would have no time for important work. But since I feel that you are men of good will and your criticisms are sincerely offered, I would like to answer your statement in what I hope will be patient and reasonable terms. 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Time Series Analysis Essay Sample free essay sample

This ( non surprisingly ) concerns the analysis of informations collected over clip †¦ hebdomadal values. monthly values. quarterly values. annually values. etc. Normally the purpose is to spot whether there is some form in the values collected to day of the month. with the purpose of short term prediction ( to utilize as the footing of concern determinations ) . We will compose yt = response of involvement at clip T ( we normally think of these as every bit spaced in clock clip ) . Standard analyses of concern clip series involve: 1 ) smoothing/trend appraisal 2 ) appraisal of/accounting for seasonality 3 ) appraisal of/exploiting â€Å"serial correlation† These are usually/most e?ectively done on a graduated table where the â€Å"local† fluctuation in yt is about changeless. Smoothing Time SeriesThere are assorted reasonably simple smoothing/averaging methods. Two are â€Å"ordinary traveling averages† and â€Å"exponentially weighted traveling norms. † Ordinary Moving Averages For a â€Å"span† of K periods.vitamin E yt = moving norm through clip t yt + yt?1 + yt?2 +  ·  ·  · + yt?k?1 = K Where seasonal e?ects are expected. it is standard to utilize K = figure of periods per rhythm Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages These weight observations less to a great extent as one moves back in clip from the current period. They are typically computed â€Å"recursively† as vitamin E yt = exponentially weighted moving norm at clip T vitamin E = wyt + ( 1 ? tungsten ) yt?1 vitamin E ( yt?1 is the EWMA from the old period and the current EWMA is a via media between the old EWMA and the current observation. ) e One must get down this recursion someplace and it’s common to take y1 = y1. Notice that w = 1 does no smoothing. while w = 0 smooths so much that the EWMA neer alterations ( i. e. all the values are equal to the ?rst ) . Exercise/Example Table 13. 1 ( page 13-5 ) of the text gives quarterly retail gross revenues for JC Penney. 1996-2001 ( in 1000000s of dollars ) . â€Å"By hand† 1 ) utilizing thousand = 4 ?nd ordinary moving norms for periods 5 through 8. so 2 ) utilizing ( e. g. ) tungsten = . 3. ?nd the exponentially leaden traveling mean values for those periods. t 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 yt Span k = 4 MA tungsten = . 3 EWMA 4452 4452 4507 4469 = . 3 ( 4507 ) + . 7 ( 4452 ) 5537 A ! 4789 = . 3 ( 5537 ) + . 7 ( 4469 ) 4452 + 4507 8157 5663 = 1 5799 = . 3 ( 8157 ) + . 7 ( 4789 ) 4 +5537 + 8157 6481 6420 7208 9509 A secret plan of both the original clip series and the K = 4 MA values for the JC Penney information is in Figure 13. 13. page 13-28 of the text. Here is a JMP â€Å"Overlay Plot† version of this image and an indicant of how you can acquire JMP to do the MA’s. Figure 1: JC Penney Gross saless and k = 4 MA Series Figure 2: JMP â€Å"Column Formula† for JC Penney MA’s Computation of EWMAs in JMP doesn’t appear to be simple. Figure 13. 15 on page 13-32 of the text ( that uses a di?erent information set ) shows the e?ect of altering tungsten on how much smoothing is done. The most jaggy secret plan is the ( ruddy ) raw informations secret plan ( w = 1. 0 ) . The ( purple ) tungsten = . 5 EWMA secret plan is smoother. The ( black ) tungsten = . 1 secret plan is smoothest. Here is a secret plan of 3 EWMA series for the JC Penney gross revenues informations. Figure 3: EWMAs for JC Penney Gross saless Data There are other more sophisticated smoothing methods available in statistical package. JMP provides â€Å"splines. † JMP Cubic Spline Smoothers These are available utilizing the â€Å"Fit Yttrium by X† process in JMP. They have a â€Å"sti?ness knob† that lets one adjust how much â€Å"wiggling† the smoothened curve can make. Here are several splines ?t to the JC Penney gross revenues informations. The â€Å"sti?ness knob† is the parametric quantity â€Å"? . † Figure 4: Splines Fit to the JC Penney Data JMP will hive away the smoothened values obtained from these spline drum sanders ( merely as it will hive away predicted values from arrested developments ) in the original informations tabular array. if one chinks on the appropriate ruddy trigon and chooses that option. Typically one wants to â€Å"smooth† a clip series in order to do forecasts/projections into the hereafter. The MA. EWMA. and spline drum sanders don’t truly supply vitamin E prognosiss beyond projecting a current value yt to the following period. period t+1. A possibility for smoothing that provides forecasts other than a current smoothened value is to ?t a simple curve to the series utilizing arrested development. where the â€Å"x† variable is â€Å"t† ( that is. the information vectors are ( 1. y1 ) . ( 2. y2 ) . . . . ) . It is peculiarly easy to ?t â€Å"low order† multinomials ( lines. parabolas. etc. ) to such informations utilizing JMP. These provide extrapolations beyond t he terminal of the information set. JMP Fitting of ( Low Order ) Polynomial Trends to Time Series These are once more handily available utilizing the â€Å"Fit Yttrium by X† process in JMP. ( Conceptually. 1 could besides utilize the multiple arrested development process â€Å"Fit Model† after adding columns to the informations tabular array for powers of t. But we’ll use the more elegant â€Å"Fit Yttrium by X† method. ) Below is a JMP graphic for additive and quadratic ( 1st and 2nd order multinomial ) ?ts to the JC Penney clip series. NOTICE that the extrapolations to a twenty-fifth period from these two multinomials will be rather di?erent! The two ?tted equations are yt = 5903. 2174 + 118. 75261t ? and ? yt = 6354. 9514 + 118. 75261t ? 9. 4274932 ( t ? 12. 5 ) 2 and by snaping on the appropriate ruddy trigons ( following to the â€Å"Linear Fit† or â€Å"Polynomial Fit† ) one can salvage the predicted values into the informations tabular array. ( If one uses the â€Å"Fit Model† process. one can salvage the expression for ?tted equation and acquire JMP to automatically calculate prognosiss into the hereafter by adding rows to the informations tabular array with conjectural t’s in them. ) Figure 5: JMP Fit of Linear and Parabolic Trends to the JC Penney Data As one moves from a line. to a parabola. to a cubic. etc. . ?tted multinomials will be allowed to be more and more wiggly. making a better and better occupation of hitting the aforethought points. but going less and less credible in footings of prognosiss. The happiest circumstance is that where a simple consecutive line/linear tendency seems to supply an equal sum-up of the chief motion of the clip series. Exercise/Example Compute â€Å"by hand† the additive and quadratic prognosiss of y25 ( the gross revenues for the period instantly after the terminal of the informations set ) for the JC Penney gross revenues based on the JMP ?tted equations. These ( rather di?erent ) prognosiss are y25 = 5903. 2174 + 118. 75261 ( 25 ) ? = 8872 and y25 = 6354. 9514 + 118. 75261 ( 25 ) ? 9. 4274932 ( 25 ? 12. 5 ) 2 ? = 7851 Accounting for/Adjusting for SeasonalityThe additive tendency ?t to the JC Penney information misses the seasonality in the information. Largely. the consecutive line in Figure 5 â€Å"over-predicts† in the ?rst 3 quarters of each twelvemonth and â€Å"under-predicts† in the fourth one-fourth of each twelvemonth. ( t = 1. 5. 9. 13. 17. 21 are â€Å"?rst quarter† periods. T = 2. 6. 10. 14. 18. 22 are â€Å"second quarter† periods. etc. ) It is good known that retail gross revenues are typically best in the fourth one-fourth. where the Christmas season goad consumer purchasing. It makes sense in the analysis of concern and economic clip series to seek to set smoothed values ( and prognosiss ) in visible radiation of seasonal e?ects. Here we’ll see several ways of making this. Simple Arithmetic and â€Å"Additive† Adjustment for Seasonal E?ects One simple manner of seeking to account for seasonality is to look at all periods of a given type ( e. g. 1st one-fourth periods where informations are quarterly. or all June ?gures where informations are monthly ) and calculate an mean divergence of the original clip series from the smoothed or ?tted values in those periods. That norm can so be added to smoothed values or prognosiss from a smooth curve in order to account for seasonality. Simple Arithmetic and â€Å"Multiplicative† Adjustment for Seasonal E?ects A 2nd simple manner of seeking to account for seasonality is to look at all periods of a given type ( e. g. 1st one-fourth periods where informations are quarterly. or all June ?gures where informations are monthly ) and calculate an mean ratio of the existent values to the smoothed or ?tted values in those periods. That norm can so be used as a multiplier for smoothened values or prognosiss from a smooth curve in order to account for seasonality. Example The tabular array below gives simple calculation of â€Å"additive† and â€Å"multiplicative† seasonality factors for the 1st one-fourth JC Penney gross revenues. based on the additive tendency ?t to the informations and pictured in Figure 5. Period. t 1 5 9 13 17 21 yt 4452 6481 6755 7339 7528 7522 yt ? 6022 6497 6972 7447 7922 8397 yt ? yt ? yt yt ? ?1570. 7393 ?16. 9975 ?217. 9685 ?108. 9855 ?394. 9503 ?875. 8958 ?3180 5. 5369 Then note that the mean yt ? yt is ? ?3180 = ?530 6 Y and the mean yt/?t is 5. 5369 = . 9228 6 So ?tted values or prognosiss from the line ?t to the JC Penney informations could be adjusted by either add-on of ?530 or generation by. 9228. For illustration. the prognosis for period 25 ( the ?rst period after the terminal of the information in manus and a ?rst one-fourth ) from the additive ?t in Figure 5 alone is 8872. This could be adjusted for the seasonality as either y25 = 8872 + ( ?530 ) = 8342 ? ( doing usage of an â€Å"additive† seasonality accommodation ) or as y25 = 8872 ( . 9228 ) = 8187 ? ( doing usage of a â€Å"multiplicative† seasonality accommodation ) . Exert The tabular array below gives the fourth one-fourth values and ?tted values from the line ?t to the JC Penney informations. Complete the computations. acquire linear and multiplicative seasonality factors. and utilize them to do 4th one-fourth prognosiss for the twelvemonth following the terminal of the information ( this is period t = 28 and the additive ?t entirely undertakings gross revenues of y28 = 5903. 2174 + 118. 75261 ( 28 ) = 9228 ) . ? Period. t 4 8 12 16 20 24 yt 8157 9509 9072 9661 9573 9542 yt ? 6378 6853 7328 7803 8278 8753 yt ? yt ? yt yt ? 1779 1. 2789 2656 1. 3876 1744 1. 2380 Making an linear accommodation y28 = 9228 + ( ? ) = and doing a multiplicative accommodation y28 = 9229 ? ( ? ) = The U. S. authorities studies values of all sorts of economic clip series. In many instances. both â€Å"raw† and â€Å"seasonally adjusted† versions of these are announced. That is. non merely does the authorities announce a value of â€Å"housing starts. † but it besides announces a value of â€Å"seasonally adjusted lodging starts. † If SF is a multiplicative seasonality factor for the peculiar month under treatment. this means that both lodging starts and lodging starts seasonally adjusted lodging starts = SF are reported. Using Dummy Variables in MRL to Account for Seasonality A more sophisticated and convenient agencies of making ( linear ) seasonality accommodations is to use dummy variables in a multiple additive arrested development. That is. if there are thousand seasons. one can believe of doing up Ks ? 1 dummy variables x1. x2. . . . . xk?1 where for period T xj. T = ( 1 if period T is from season J 0 otherwise and so utilizing these in a Multiple Linear Regression. ?tting ( for illustration ) yt ? b0 + b1t + a1x1. T + a2x2. T +  ·  ·  · + ak?1xk?1. t The following ?gure shows the set-up of a JMP information tabular array for the JC Penney informations to do usage of this thought. Figure 6: JMP Data Table Prepared for Using MLR to Account for Seasonality What this method does is allow the â€Å"intercept† of a additive tendency in yt alteration with period. A â€Å"cartoon† screening how this works for the instance where there are thousand = 4 seasons is below. Figure 7: Cartoon for Dummy Variables and Seasonality ( k = 4 Seasons ) To ?t such a â€Å"linear tendency plus season dummies† theoretical account to clip series informations. one can use a multiple additive arrested development plan. JMP’s â€Å"Fit Model† routine incorporates such a plan. The JMP â€Å"Fit Model† duologue box and ensuing study for the JC Penney informations follow. Figure 8: JMP â€Å"Fit Model† Dialogue Box for Using Dummies to Account for Seasonality Figure 9: JMP Report for Suiting Linear Trend Plus Seasonal Dummies to the JC Penney Data The study shows that ?tted values for 4th one-fourth periods Ts are yt = 7858. 8 + 99. 541t ? and. for illustration. ?tted values for 1st one-fourth periods are yt = ( 7858. 8 + ( ?2274. 2 ) ) + 99. 541t ? So. for illustration. 25th period ( the ?rst one-fourth instantly after the terminal of the informations set ) gross revenues would be forecast as y25 = 7858. 8 ? 2274. 2 + 99. 541 ( 25 ) = 8073 ? and twenty-eighth period gross revenues ( fourth one-fourth gross revenues for the twelvemonth after the information terminals ) would be forecast as y28 = 7858. 8 + 99. 541 ( 28 ) = 10. 646 ? Using Consecutive Correlation ( in Residuals ) To Better Predictions Sometimes â€Å"trend plus seasonal e?ect† is all the information carried by a clip series. But there are besides many instances where yet more information can be extracted from the clip series to better on â€Å"trend plus seasonal e?ect† prognosiss. This involves utilizing remainders et = yt ? yt ? ( for yt the â€Å"?tted tendency plus seasonal e?ect† values for the information in manus ) . ? If remainders look like random draws from a ?xed existence. so there is nil left in them to work. But sometimes they exhibit â€Å"serial correlation† that allows us to e?ectively foretell a given remainder from old 1s. That is. sometimes the brace ( et?1. et ) show some additive relationship that can be exploited. When that can be done. anticipations of future remainders can be added to â€Å"trend plus seasonal† prognosiss for future periods. Figure 10 shows the remainders and â€Å"lag 1 residuals† for the additive tendency plus seasonal ?t to the JC Penney gross revenues informations in the informations tabular array. Figure 10: Remainders et and Lag 1 Residuals et?1 for the JC Penney Data Next. there are 3 secret plans. In the ?rst et is plotted against T and in the 2nd. et is plotted against et?1. These secret plans ( in Figures 11 and 12 ) show the same thing in di?erent footings. There is a clip form in the remainders. So back-to-back remainders tend to be large ( positive ) together and little ( negative ) together. That is because the ?tted theoretical account over-predicts early in the information set and late in the information set. and under-predicts in the center of the information set. That can besides be seen if one looks carefully at the 3rd secret plan of both yt versus T and yt versus T ( Figure 13 ) . ? Figure 11: Plot of Residuals versus Period for the JC Penney Data Figure 12: Plot of Residual et versus Lag 1 Residual et?1 for the JC Penney Data Figure 13: JC Penney Gross saless and Fitted Gross saless The form in Figure 12 suggests that one might foretell a remainder from the instantly predating residuary utilizing some signifier of arrested development. Figure 14 shows that utilizing simple additive arrested development of remainders on slowdown 1 remainders gives a ?tted equation et = 30. 26762 + 0. 7593887et?1 ? Notice that this means that from the last point in the JC Penney informations set ( period 24 ) it is possible to foretell the residuary at period 25. since the residuary for period 24 will so be known! That is e25 = 30. 26762 + 0. 7593887e24 ? Figure 14: JMP Report for SLR of Residual on Lag 1 Residual In fact. this line of believing suggests that we can better on the prognosis of Y y25 based entirely on additive tendency plus seasonal ( ?25 = 8073 ) by utilizing y25 + e25 ? ? Looking in the informations tabular array of Figure 10. we see that the residuary in the ?nal period of the information set is e24 = ?705. 74405 and therefore that e25 = 30. 26762 + 0. 7593887 ( ?705. 74405 ) = ?506 ? so that what might be an improved prognosis for period 25 is 8073 + ( ?506 ) = 7567 The basic thought of foretelling remainders from old remainders can be carried even further. One can seek foretelling a remainder on the footing of non merely the instantly predating one. but the instantly predating two ( or more ) . That is. it is possible to regress et on et?1 and et?2 in order to come up with a manner of calculating a following remainder ( and hence bettering a tendency plus seasonal prognosis ) . We will non demo any inside informations here ( for one thing because the thought doesn’t truly o?er any betterment in the JC Penney illustration ) . but the thought should be clear. Case Study-JMP Airline Passenger Count DataIn the â€Å"Sample Data† provided with a JMP installing are some clip series informations. â€Å"Seriesg. jmp† gives 12 old ages worth of monthly air hose rider counts taken from the clip series book of Box and Jenkins. ( The informations are from January 1949 through December 1960 and the counts are in 1000s of passengers. ) This information set can be used to laudably show the subjects discussed here. ( Although we have made usage of the JC Penney informations set for exemplifying intents. it is far smaller than the minimal size that should truly be used in a clip series analysis. The length 144 air hose rider informations set is closer to being of practical size for dependable development of forecasts. ) Figure 15 is a secret plan of the natural rider counts versus clip. Figure 15: Airline Passenger Counts Time Series Figure 15 has a characteristic that is common to many economic clip series of any appreciable length. Namely. as clip goes on. the â€Å"local† or short term fluctuation seems to increase as the general degree of the count additions. Besides. it looks like the general tendency of count versus clip may non be additive. but instead have some upward curvature. It is far easier to ?t and calculate series that don’t have these characteristics. So what we can make is to seek to transform the natural counts. ?t and prognosis with the transformed series. and so â€Å"untransform† to do ?nal readings. That is. we will analyse the ( base 10 ) logarithms of rider counts yt = log10 ( rider count at period T ) Figure 16 is a secret plan of yt and merrily looks â€Å"better† than the original series in Figure 15 for intents of ?tting and prediction. Figure 16: Logarithm of Passenger Counts A ?rst measure in analysis of the yt series is possibly to see how a additive tendency does at depicting the information. We can utilize JMP to make SLR and ?t a line to the ( t. yt ) values and salvage the anticipations. These can so be plotted utilizing â€Å"Overlay Plot† along with the original series to acquire Figure 17. Figure 17: Linear Trend Fit to yt Series Of class. the additive tendency ignores the seasonality in the times series. Since these are monthly informations. we could de?ne 11 monthly index variables. But that would be boring. and merrily the JMP informations tabular array ( partly pictured in Figure 18 ) has the month information coded into it in the signifier of a â€Å"nominal† variable â€Å"Season. † Since â€Å"Season† is a â€Å"nominal† variable ( indicated by the ruddy cap N ) if we tell JMP’s â€Å"Fit Model† modus operandi to utilize it in a multiple arrested development. it will automatically utilize the individual nominal variable to make 12 ? 1 = 11 silent person variables for all but one of the values of â€Å"Season. † That is. we may ?ll in the â€Å"Fit Model† duologue box as in Figure 19 to acquire ?tted values for the â€Å"linear tendency plus seasonal† theoretical account. Figure 18: Partial JMP Data Table for the Airline Passenger Data Figure 19: JMP â€Å"FIT Model† Dialogue Box for Linear Trend Plus Seasonal Fit A partial JMP study for the ?tting indicated in Figure 19 is shown in Figure 20. A secret plan of the ?tted values for the additive tendency plus seasonal theoretical account is shown in Figure 21. Figure 20: Partial JMP Report for Linear Trend Plus Seasonal Fit to yt Figure 21: Linear Trend Plus Seasonal Fit to Logarithms of Passenger Counts Of class. the ?t indicated in Figure 21 is better than the 1 in Figure 17. And the prognosiss provided by the arrested development theoretical account can be extended into the â€Å"future† ( beyond T = 144 that represents the last point in the informations set ) . But there is even more that can be done if one considers the nature of the remainders ? from the arrested development ?t. Figure 22 shows a secret plan of the remainders et = yt ? yt versus T and Figure 23 shows that there is a just sum of correlativity between remainders and lagged remainders. ( This is no surprise given the nature of the secret plan in Figure 22 where â€Å"slow† tendencies in the remainders make 1s near together in clip similar in value. ) Figure 22: Plot of Residuals versus T for the Log Passenger Counts Figure 23: Remainders. Lag 1 Residuals. and Lag 2 Residuals for Log Passenger Counts It is possible ( by analyzing arrested developments of remainders on lagged remainders ) to come to the decision that in footings of foretelling remainders from earlier remainders it su?ces to merely utilize the individual old one ( nil of import is gained by utilizing the two old 1s ) . And in fact. for this job. an appropriate anticipation equation ( coming from SLR of et on et?1 ) is et = ?0. 000153 + 0. 7918985et?1 ? This can be used to set the ?ts/predictions from the additive tendency plus seasonal theoretical account of log counts as ( adjusted degree Fahrenheit it ) t = yt + et ? ? These are plotted along with the original series and the earlier ?tted values yt in Figure 24. There is a little. but clearly discernable betterment in the ? quality of the mold provided by this accommodation for consecutive correlativity in the remainders. Figure 24: Original Values yt. Fitted Values yt. and Adjusted Fitted Values ? ? yt + et ? Notice so that an adjusted prognosis of log rider count for period T = 145 ( the January/Season 1 following the terminal of the informations set ) becomes y145 + e145 = ( 2. 0899065 + ( ?0. 037092 ) + . 0043728 ( 145 ) ) ? ? + ( ?0. 000153 + 0. 7918985 ( ?0. 0377583 ) ) = 2. 65682038 This ?gure is ( of class ) on a log graduated table. We may â€Å"untransform† this value in order to acquire a prognosis for a rider count ( as opposed to a log rider count ) . This is 102. 65682038 = 454 In fact. it is worthwhile to see a ?nal secret plan. that compares the original series of counts to the whole set of values ? e 10yt+?t that map as ?tted values on the original ( count ) graduated table. This is show in Figure 25 ( including the value for period 145. whose aforethought symbol is larger than the others. and represents a prognosis beyond the terminal of the original informations set ) . ? vitamin E Figure 25: Plot of Passenger Counts and Final Fitted Values 10yt+?t ( Including a Prognosis for t = 145 )

Women and Gender in the James Bond Films Essay Example

Women and Gender in the James Bond Films Essay The film industry has been around for a long time now, and films are often are used to express society’s values, and norms as Wikipedia says, â€Å"Films are artefacts created by specific cultures.† In this way, films project cultures and as they are an extremely popular medium as Pettinger says, â€Å"Cinema attendance has continued to increase despite – rising prices, on demand TV movie channels, the growth of internet movie downloads, and the growth of widescreen TVs.† Theodor Addorno states, â€Å"Where in the proposed that popular culture is akin to a factory producing standardized cultural goods films, radio programmes, magazines, etc. that are used to manipulate mass society into passivity. Consumption of the easy pleasures of popular culture, made available by the mass communications media, renders people docile and content† In this way films act almost like a controller for society, to control the mobs much like the Romans had gladiatorial combat we have films and media. Through the use of film new ideals and social processes are projected to us almost like a hidden curriculum that portrays society’s norms. This links to secondary socialization where societies values and morals and projected or reinforced through film. In my essay, I will be analysing the way James Bond films use representations of women and voyeurism and gender roles to maintain the popularity of the James Bond franchise. I will be looking at the messages James Bond conveys to its audience. Marxism is another very prevalent topic in relation to Bond films as a film is used to make money and women are often used in Bond films to do this. Bond films are notoriously anti-feminist, this bei ng an underlining theme in many Bond films. We will write a custom essay sample on Women and Gender in the James Bond Films specifically for you for only $16.38 $13.9/page Order now We will write a custom essay sample on Women and Gender in the James Bond Films specifically for you FOR ONLY $16.38 $13.9/page Hire Writer We will write a custom essay sample on Women and Gender in the James Bond Films specifically for you FOR ONLY $16.38 $13.9/page Hire Writer Part of the film is ones escape from reality this relates to hyper reality-Jean Baudrillard; the James Bond movie is a man’s ideal world where woman are glamourized, and the male is dominant with alpha male characteristi

Write for Any Magazine

Write for Any Magazine Write-what-you-know has its purpose. Why bother gaining experience or studying anything new if you cant use it? Why become an expert? As a freelancer, if you limit your writing to only what you know, you become stale after a period of time. I profess that you can write about for almost any magazine. Here are three tricks to picking up a magazine and determining a pitch for the editor: 1) Interview an expert in a magazines field. You may not know squat about the subject matter of a magazine, but if you interview someone who does, you have the makings of a great profile piece. Sure, you need to read up on the individual so you dont sound completely naive, but youll learn soon enough that most experts thrive on explaining what they do. Ask a few pertinent, intelligent questions, and theyll take off like a rocket, feeding you all the information you need for a beautiful piece for magazines you never thought youd ever qualify to write for. 2) Study press releases. That means study ALL press releases. Go to prweb.com/ or prnewswire.com/ and read whats new. Not only will you find experts quoted who you can contact for item 1) above, but you can learn about new findings, studies, revelations, inventions, and happenings that make for great features. Whats fantastic about these releases is that they list names and contact information for the people who know the most about the topic matter. Right there in oneplace, you have the facts you need to outline a great feature. 3) Pitch something evergreen. A subject like How to make the most of a conference can apply to magazines for fishermen, golfers, doctors, teachers, writers, accountants, landscapers, or anyone who attends a professional conference. How to hire a great employee from a mediocre pool of applicants. How to make your website sticky and appealing.   How New Years resolutions really do work. Travel deals you never see in the ads. The list goes on and on about how to take a very general, how-to-live-better piece and apply it to most topics. So, take those three simple concepts, and unless the magazines require you have an advanced degree in the subject matter, you have an open door to endless material for all those magazines you see in Writers Market . . . and FundsforWriters.

10 Tips on How to Make an Author Website (+ Bonus Checklist)

10 Tips on How to Make an Author Website (+ Bonus Checklist) 10 Tips on How to Make an Author Website (+ Bonus Checklist) In today’s competitive book market, making an author website that helps you sell more books and build your profile requires more than just a Blogspot page and a domain with your name in it. In this article, we’ve worked with experienced Reedsy web designers to whittle down ten top tips that will help you build the perfect author website.The first five tips are things that your site needs: pieces of advice that you cannot afford to ignore.Once you take those on board, we have five more tips that will make your site stand out from the crowd, helping you achieve your goals which are, if you’ve already forgotten, to sell more books and build your profile. And to finish up, we have a free checklist that you can download to make sure that your own website is up to scratch.Ready?How to Make an Author  Website 101: Five Essential Tips1. Make it easy for visitors to buy your bookâ€Å"I see so many author websites forget one of the most crucial elements: purchase links to major retailers,† says Jeremiah Tolbert, a designer who creates sites for bestselling authors like Michael Connolly. â€Å"Ostensibly, one of the driving goals behind an author website is to help sell your books, so not presenting purchase links to the major retailers in a structured, well-ordered way is costing you sales.†Liam Fitzgerald agrees. He’s a professional designer whose portfolio includes sites for Anthony Horowitz, Eoin Colfer, and Darren Shan.   He adds the caveat that you need not link to every retailer under the sun.â€Å"You should have a maximum of three retailers and allow the reader to choose the format at point of purchase. If you provide too many options, this could easily result in buyer paralysis and non-sale.†One clever hack to consider is the Universal Link from Books2Read. It’s a great (and, importantly, free) tool that directs readers to your book’s page on their preferred retailer with just a single link.2. T ell people who you are and where to find you Recommended resources:11 Author Websites That Get it Right: a post analyzing 11  famous author websites to offer some invaluable takeaways.Author Website Design Inspiration: more advice on author websites, looking at how they can turn your readers into lifetime fans.What are your favorite author websites out there? What other tips would you add to this list? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!

Future of 2020 Automotive Industry Research Paper

Future of 2020 Automotive Industry - Research Paper Example of the global financial crisis have been noticeable since early 2008, and the crisis has by now proved itself to be the most horrible economic crisis. It is almost similar to the Great Depression of the 1930s. The economic crisis had been impending for some time, ignored by many, due to the accomplishment of an extremely limited amount of products, like light trucks and sport utility vehicles (SUVs). At this point, it is apparent that the automotive service sector, which is one of the leading service industries, is struck hard by the current economic and financial crisis. With global financial crisis as a starting point, the arrival of a new atmosphere in automotive business sector is expected. There is increased necessity to predict future prospects and to be ready for it. Clubbed with the current global crisis, various other factors too have largely affected automotive business; for example, problems related to energy, sustainable growth, technology growth, aging, natural tragedies , etc. Environmental alterations in the automotive business affect each part of the business, which include its structure and size, its positions and even more than that. Besides global economic crisis, on the whole, change is required to revamp the industry, to and to overcome all the troubles. The unexpected changes required in automotive industry must be established with a long-term view covering specific areas like generating new business, technology growth, organizational development, etc. There are also various other factors that influence the crisis in automotive industry. Those are long term and short term factors. The short-term factor is simply the unexpected and huge collapse of sales. In an industry or business with high level of fixed costs, this brings a dramatic effect on the companies. The preceding assessment of the impacts of the economic crisis, and the solutions for the problems, point out to the following conclusions: By referring to the alterations for automotive

Statistical Process Control Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

Statistical Process Control - Essay Example ld, therefore, ensure that there is use of the most proper management approach, for an effective problem-solving and improvement of the process of production or allowance of service by the company. This ensures that the company runs smoothly without chaos. In this paper, discussion will be made on a U.S based giant company by the name Walmart. This corporation was started in the year 1962, with its first store in Rogers, Arkansas. The corporation started as a small discount retailer but has since expanded internationally. By embracing innovations, the corporation has allowed its customers to shop online. Presently, Walmart operates more than 11,000 retail units in 27 countries and employs 2.2 million associates globally, out of which 1.3 million of the associates come from the U.S alone (Fishman, 2006). Walmart being a large shopping corporation deals in consumer end products ranging from clothing to groceries. Specifically, focus will be given on the entire shopping service that it provides. To increase sales especially in foreign countries, it uses the campaign â€Å"everyday low prices.† This has however not worked in all states. A reference point is what happened in Japan when Walmart bought a share in the Seiyu Company, but the successful strategy of the campaign failed. This is because the shoppers in Japan did not respond like the shoppers in the U.S. The Japanese shoppers associated the low prices with low quality and thus avoiding shopping there. Despite the continued success of Walmart especially in the U.S, there are areas that need to be improved especially in the foreign markets to ensure success globally. The fact that Walmart has failed to replicate its success in some of the foreign markets could be attributed to the lack of the corporation to fine-tune its shopping experience to the local culture. For instance in South Korea, the corporation should have agreed to the needs of the shoppers, who prefer goods in small packages, thereby forcing the

Business Research Methods Essay Example for Free

Business Research Methods Essay Organizational Dilemma Starbucks grew as it attracted many people, leading to tripling its stores worldwide. It became part of every neighborhood, appearing on every street, in airports, supermarkets, and roadside rest stops all over America. This is when complaints began to surface that Starbucks is transforming into a fast-food restaurant and not a coffee house. The coffee industry was no longer dominated by Starbucks, for competitors began to put pressure on the business. In addition, the biggest dilemma to hit Starbucks was the 2008 economic crisis. This took a toll on the consumer who saw Starbucks as a luxury and searched for more affordable alternatives. As a result, Starbucks’ management was faced with the need to generate the right management question that would be the thread to making the best decision through its research design. An organizational dilemma can spark a research question. Once an organization determines a situation exists, research methods start to devise and eventually sample designs are implemented. When people think of Starbucks, do they think of great customer service, quality products, clean store, or great coffee? The organizational dilemma is: how should Starbucks go about keeping loyal customers while overcoming the old perceptions and changing with the times. According to Howard Schultz, â€Å"We are not in the coffee business serving people; we are in the people business serving coffee† (Starbucks Board of Directors, 2008). Research Design Marius Pretorius (2008) research infers Starbuck’s organizational dilemma, whether strategic or operational is not diminished when using Michael Porter’s (1985) generic strategies for competitive advantage. Declining sales require a turnaround solution that address strategic causes and cost relationship pressures that govern demand determinants. Which are â€Å"highly susceptible to external influences that are not clearly visible to the decision-makers† (Pretorius, 2008, pg. 21). Designing a two-stage exploratory study to identify the basis of distress and the key determinants is essential to a turnaround strategic plan. An exploratory study provides sufficient flexibility to address research costs, timelines, and development of clear constructs to address priorities and operational definitions (Cooper Schindler, 2011). The first stage of the study will look to ascertain the causation of the organizational dilemma and postulate the asymmetrical relationships in declining sales by examining both internal and external independent and dependent variables. This research will categorize findings into four relationship types as stimulus-response, property-disposition, disposition-behavior, or property-behavior. This will refine the second stage of research and explore influencing factors in depth. Characteristics and Operational Definitions The research design will produce casual inferences upon which a complementary strategy will result. â€Å"Although they may be neither permanent nor universal, these inferences allow us to build knowledge of presumed causes over time† (Cooper Schindler, 2011, pg. 154). Therefore, it is important to identify moderating or interactive variable dependencies. To ensure data validity operational definitions will challenge data to meet specific standards. These definitions may not exhibit the organization’s use but will establish a means to classify clearly an event. The main concern is to establish actionable information in which contributory or contingent effects on the original independent to dependent variable (IV–DV) relationship will provide empirical conclusions. References Cooper, D.R. Schindler, P.S. (2011). Business research methods (11th ed.). New York, NY: McGraw-Hill/Irwin. Porter, M.E., (1985). Competitive advantage: Creating and sustaining superior performance. New York, NY: The Free Press Pretorius, M., (2008). When Porter’s generic strategies are not enough: Complementary strategies for turnaround situations. Journal of Business Strategy 29(6): 19–28. Starbucks Board of Directors. (2008). Retrieved 2 2013, February, from Starbucks.com: www.starbucks.com/aboutus/environment.asp Starbucks, (2011) Our Company: Mission Statement. Retrieved from http://www.starbucks.com

Bluetooth :: sCommerce Technology Essays

A new technology of the 21st century is reshaping human life. The concept of silent commerce, commonly known as â€Å"sCommerce† is the silent transfer of knowledge and information through mobile phones and electronic devices. Sadly, this technology is initiating the transition from a humanistic society to a more electronically controlled world. This new, perhaps, frightful world introduces electronic devices capable of thinking for themselves without human control. Imagine the average teenager purchasing a CD player with enough intelligence to exchange and communicate with his/her laptop without the child’s consent. Or your Kenmore â€Å"frig† secretly letting your grocer know when you’re out of milk. Scary isn’t it? Well, sCommerce, particularly the Bluetooth chip, gives these electrically run â€Å"gadgets† these abilities. It allows inhuman things to have human capabilities and perhaps exceed our own â€Å"brain power.† T ruly, the Bluetooth chip may be an eye opening technological breakthrough, but has harmful humanistic, economic affects with its integration into the electronic and mobile/telecommunication world . Realistically, the average technologically involved person has heard the term â€Å"Bluetooth.† The apparent name of this chip is derived from the 10th century Scandinavian king, Harald Bluetooth, who was historically known for uniting various unorganized kingdoms. Similarly, Bluetooth is specialized to unite many competing electronic standards under one main specification. By definition, â€Å"Bluetooth is a global de facto standard for wireless connectivity. Based on a low-cost, short-range radio link, Bluetooth cuts the cords that used to tie up digital devices. When two Bluetooth equipped devices come within 10 meters range of each other, they can establish a connection together.

Analysis of White River in Southeastern South Dakota

Analysis of White River in southeasterly South Dakota Your house has been asked to subject a proposal to holistically measure the White River in southeasterly South Dakota for two concerns viz. ,Groundwater resources and quality, andSurface H2O quality concerns.IntroductionWater is one of our chiefly important natural assets. If our planet would be missing it, there would be no life nowadays on this planet Earth. It’s the responsibility of Hydrologists to analyze all features of H2O organic structures present at site and its relation to geography, geology, topography, biological science, and chemical science. It’s the responsibility of Hydrologists to understand the job nowadays at site and so work out the job by using applicable proficient cognition and mathematical rules to work out water-related jobs in civilisation. These jobs include the measure, quality, and handiness of H2O. The chief undertaking of the study is to measure the Groundwater resources and quality, the 2nd portion of this study is to measure the Surface H2O quality of White River in southeasterly South Dakota. The squad of applied scientists is examining the White River in southeasterly South Dakota for two concerns viz. groundwater resources and surface H2O quality concerns. White River has expressed no serious apprehensivenesss about the possible contacts of any prospect development on the southeasterly South Dakota. Thus it is the demand of clip to set about a hydrological and hydrogeological appraisal, working to a brief agreed with Natural resources nowadays in southeasterly South Dakota.Scope of workThe program of the survey is to fix a preliminary appraisal of the possible hydrological and hydrogeological facets of White River in southeasterly South Dakota. The undermentioned range was proposed: On-site function of H2O organic structures, catchments, flow way, precipitation and overflow, infiltration and petrology of dirt strata so that all of the little watercourses taking into the river and milieus are clearly understood. The exercising of long term rainfall and vaporization statistics to measure the effectual rainfall and, by agencies of suited overflow coefficients, to think watercourse flows. These should be contrasted with the field based observations to heighten a reasonable cognition of the hydrology of the site.Prepare 1:10000 geological maps to depict the boundaries of dirt strata.Commence trial cavities to prove theoretical boundaries and deepness of impermeable strata.Install four or more boreholes into the land to show baseline statistics and trying place.Trial land Wellss for finding the land H2O table conditions.Field Observation SurveysField observation studies are carried out in order to roll up informations in signifier of geological maps, hydrological maps and terrain of the proposed site. The informations can so be acquired establishing upon the relevant undertaking. The chief purpose of this study is to roll up informations for the land H2O and surface H2O. The undertakings required to transport out such undertakings are given in the proposal below:Topography & A ; Hydrology MappingThe subdivision is divided into two chief headers i.e. Topography and Hydrology, when discoursing topography we mean the status and type of the terrain which may be picturing degrees of the land, hills, vales, woods and H2O organic structures. The topographical function is necessary to place the surface groundwater flows and their speeds. The surface groundwater is related with the overflow measure and precipitation. Hydrology is the 2nd facet of this heading under which we will discourse the conditions that chiefly relate to the deepness of the dirt H2O degree below the land surface. Barsoum et Al ( 2005 ) note that for alder, the H2O degree demands to be near to the surface when the trees are immature, but deeper when to the full grown. Optimum growing of seedlings occurs when H2O degrees are 10-30 centimeter below the surface. ( Eymard 1969 )Geological FunctionThe geological sequ ence relevant to the site must be determined so infiltration rate can warrant, H2O infiltration, sub surface flows and to find the strength of the strata for future development if any. The geology plays an of import function when depicting the hydrological information for the fact that submerged aquifers, watercourses and hot spring can be identified which are natural resources and can be utilized. The information will assist in finding of the quality of sub surface and surface H2O quality.Hydrological SurveyThe Hydrological study is the chief part of the proposal and is further divided into parts so as to understand easy: 3.1 Groundwater Groundwater hydrology believes steps groundwater flow and silt conveyance. Problems in decoding the saturated zone comprise of categorization of aquifers in footings of flow way, groundwater force per unit area and, by decision groundwater astuteness. ( Peter 2012 ) Determinations here can be made utilizing a piezometer. Groundwater location can besides be found by delving trial Wellss at close intervals and so utilizing these Wellss in similar manner as that of piezometer, the rise of H2O degree in good will order the deepness of land H2O tabular array. 3.2 Infiltration The infiltration of H2O from overflow into the dirt is a important subject. In a figure of state of affairss a dry dirt may non soak up rainfall every bit thirstily as a dirt that is antecedently wet. Permeation can sometimes be calculated by an infiltrometer. ( Peter 2012 ) 3.3 Precipitation and vaporization Precipitation is the word used to specify the rainfall strength in footings of inches or centimetres, it is normally defined in footings of deepness of H2O that can be collected if H2O beads are collected one above the other in a perpendicular chamber besides known as rain gage for a specific period of clip. Precipitation information is really utile when pulling storm hydrograph charts. Vaporization is a important fraction of the H2O rhythm. It is partly affected by moistness. A direct finding of vaporization can be taken by utilizing Symon ‘s vaporization pan. ( Peter 2012 )Remote feelingDistant detection can supply cherished information about hydrological survey by utilizing land based detectors, airborne detectors and satellite detectors. Information sing catchment country, H2O organic structure, forestation, accidents and bad lucks can be achieved with preciseness and truth utilizing distant feeling techniques.Water Quality DeterminationThe last phase of our survey once the information from preliminary phases are collected and arranged is H2O quality finding survey. In hydrology, surveies of H2O quality concern organic and inorganic compounds, and both dissolved and sediment stuff. Besides, H2O quality is affected by the communicating of dissolved O with organic stuff and a assortment of chemical alterations that may happen. Biological O demand is a tool f or finding the quality of H2O, this trial is a simple method which depicts the sum of dissolved O used up by the bacteriums present in H2O. ( David and Charles 1969 ) Work Plan and Schedule of Activities The program of the work is divided based upon the squad members company has. The chief activities of the work are shown below:Land and Topographical SurveyGeotechnical Investigation of SiteLand Water Table Location DeterminationHydrological SurveyHydrogeological SurveyWater Quality InvestigationThe squads are distributed as per the work appellation which includes the responsibilities of the Civil applied scientists, hydrologists, Surveyors, Planners, GIS Specialists, CAD operators, Riggers and Technician staff. Hydrologists may be discerning with judgment H2O supplies for white river and irrigated farms, or intriguing river implosion therapy or dirt have oning off. They will be working in environmental munition, assisting to halt or cut down pollution or place sites for safe clearance of unsafe wastes. Hydrologists may necessitate shovels to computing machines and mass spectrometers, and latest tools are being urbanised every twenty-four hours. Geographic Information Systems ( GIS ) Professionals will work with affiliated systems and plans to bring forth and go on informations and maps that can be shared with physically referenced informations. GIS package has the ability to narrate diverse types of informations such as socioeconomic, demographic, administrative or political boundaries, land usage, land screen, environmental, substructure, and transit webs. GIS Specialists perform the undermentioned undertakings:Generate maps, exposures and graphs, utilizing GIS package and connected cogwheel.Congregate with users to qualify information demands, undertaking demands, required consequences, or to construct up applications.Accomplish Research to place and acquire accessible databases.Collect, analyze, and set together spacial informations from employees and make up one's mind how most first-class the information can be displayed utilizing GIS.Bring together geographic informations from a diverseness of resources including nose counts, field observation, satellite imagination, aerial exposure, and bing maps.Examine spacial informations for geographic statistics to slot in into certificates and studies.Plan and Schedule of ActivitiesThe activities are shown in the signifier of Gantt chart is given below: Premises:The Undertaking starts on January 2014.The Work Calendar is 5 yearss a hebdomad with a work twenty-four hours peers to 8hrs.There are no excess vacations in the Schedule.The utmost conditions conditions are besides non encountered in the undertaking.Budget Allocation 77 DayssAs per the undertaking outline the payment policy is shown below:Civil Engineering undertaking director ( you ) $ 150 per hrCivil Engineer in developing $ 40 per hrCivil Engineer ( PE ) $ 100 per hrResearch Scientist $ 60 per hrSurvey technician $ 25 per hrCAD and GIS technicians $ 20 per hrSupport Staff $ 15 per hrTransportation system costs should be billed at $ 0.40 per stat mi with sensible allowance for hotels, nutrient, and other necessary costsOverhead add 40 % to overall costThe agenda dictates that the undertaking will take no more than 77 on the job yearss if the work is carried out as per the agenda. From the analysis it is observed that an estimation of 85 working yearss can be taken as the u ndertaking clip. The excess yearss which have been added are merely to counterbalance eventualities found during the undertaking timeline. Now as per 85 yearss the figure of work hours will be about 680 work hours. Thus the Project budget is tabulated below for the reader:Sr. #AppellationPay per hr ( $ )Work Hours Required ( hour )Entire Pay ( $ )Undertaking Manager150680102000Undertaking Engineer10068068000Trainee Engineer4068027200Research Scientist6052031200Survey Assistant2560015000GIS Assistant2060012000CAD Assistant2060012000Support Staff155508250Transportation system0.4 / myocardial infarction600 myocardial infarction240Eventuality40 %110356Grand Total386246Therefore the undertaking budget is about $ 386,246, the computation is shown above for the reader.Mentions:Brooks, K. N. , Ffolliott, P. F. , & A ; Magner, J. A. ( 2012 ) . Hydrology and the Management of Watersheds: Wiley. De Wit, A. ( 1996 ) . Measurement of undertaking success. International diary of undertaking direction, 6 ( 3 ) , 164-170. Eymard, L. ( 1996 ) . Study of the air-sea interactions at the mesoscale: The SEMAPHORE experiment.Annales Geophysicae. Springer-Verlag, 14( 9 ) . Hendricks, S. P. , and David S. White. ( 1991 ) . Physicochemical forms within a hyporheic zone of a northern Michigan river, with remarks on surface H2O forms.Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 48( 9 ) , 1645-1654. Munns, A. K. B. F. B. ( 1996 ) . The function of undertaking direction in accomplishing undertaking success.International diary of undertaking direction, 14( 2 ) , 81-87. Straker, E. W. I. ( 1969 ) .A Monograph on the Former Ironworks in the Counties of Sussex, Surrey and Kent, Consisting a History of the Industry from the Earliest Times to Its Cessation ; Together with a Topographical Survey of the Existing Remains from Personal Observation: David & A ; Charles, . Vorosmarty, C. J. , and Berrien Moore III. ( 1997 ) . Modeling basin-scale hydrology in support of physical clime and planetary biogeochemical surveies: An illustration utilizing the Zambezi River.Surveies in Geophysics, 12.1( 3 ) , 271-311.

Jetblue Airways: Managing Growth

Jet Blue Airways; Managing Growth 1. Jet Blue? s Business- level strategy; value and cost drivers Jet Blue uses to create and maintain ist competitive position Founded by the discount airline veteran David Neeleman in 2000, JetBlue Airways has quickly become one of the largest discount airlines in the United States. Starting primarily by serving the East Coast, the airline has since expanded throughout the country and entered the international market.The reasons for its early success are numerous: JetBlue entered the market with one of the largest levels of liquidity of any start-up airline; it met the needs of customers’ whose primary concerns are price and route; and it successfully defined its brand and differentiated itself from competitors by offering an above average customer experience and amenities for a discounted price. They are offering fares with the â€Å"point to point† system. JetBlue? s business-level strategy is therefore a mix of cost-leadership and di fferentiation.David Neeleman’s idea behind JetBlue was to start a company that combined the low fares of a discount airline carrier with the comforts of a small cozy den in people’s homes. His vision involved both business and leisure customers to have cheap and affordable flights throughout the United States and abroad on newer aircraft that are not only comfortable, but are equipped with modern entertainment options, and a customer centric business model which makes customer service a number one priority.In contrast to its competitors, for example, JetBlue offers fares up to 65% lower but added comfort features such as assigned seating, leather upholstery and satellite TV on individual screens in every seat. Moreover, they are practicing a â€Å"get-to-the-destinations-at-all-costs† culture, which makes it their declared aim never to cancel a flight. JetBlue Airways does not operate to a traditional mission statement; rather, it operates to a set of core value s: Safety, Caring, Integrity, Fun, and Passion. 2. Strategic group map of the airline industry; positioning to create a strategic competitive advantage ompany| Routes serviced| Prices| size| Continental | 292| 1,586| 44939| Delta| 587| 1,009| 118856| Southwest| 97| 0,775| 77693| JetBlue| 71| 1,371| 14729| American| 336| 0,186| 745700| United| 180| 1,706| 67000| The biggest and simultaneously oldest airline companies are United, American, Delta and Continental Airline. This is why they are referred to as legacy carriers. Their strategic competitive advantage is the hub and spoke system. In this system, airlines created hubs at specific airports where thousands of passengers were shuttled to their connecting flights, the so called spokes.In doing so, these airlines can ensure to keep costs low and protect market share. Another argument strengthen this strategy is that passengers can travel between numerous destinations without changing airlines. Delta uses this strategy to dominate ge ographical segments of the market, for example Atlanta. Southwest Airlines on the other hand established a completely different strategy. They take passengers direct between cities, which is referred to as point to point. Additionally, Southwest is using secondary airports serving major metropolitan areas.With their different strategic advantage, they are able to attract another target market. Because they offer fares between cities that are often less than 500 miles apart, they targeted customers that would have otherwise traveled by car. In this way Southwest maintains high levels of plane utilization while keeping its operating costs low enough to support its discounted fares. Another part of their strategy is their reliance on a single type of plane, the Boing 737. This allowed them to standardize ground and flight personnel training which decreased the airline? average turnaround time between landing and starting again. Moreover, Southwest focuses on customers whose priority is low-cost, on-time performance. There are no complications for customers, like seat assignments. Therefore, Southwest as well as Jet Blue are considered as low cost carriers (LCC). Jet Blue offers fares up to 65 per cent lower than legacy competitors. Jet Blue Airways positions itself by connecting large, typically northeastern, US cities with warmer cities in the southeast. Jet Blue? s emphasis is like Southwest? s on low fares and point to point transportation.Jet Blue entered the market like Southwest with only one machine, the A320. In this way they could ensure serving a variety of medium- and long-haul routes and numerous overnight flights. Jet Blue could also standardize its training and servicing processes around the aircraft. This allowed them to gain flexibility in scheduling and capacity management. Another feature for customers to make travelling with this airline more attractive are added comfort features such as assigned seating, leather upholstery and satellite TV on individual screens in every seat.Their key principle was that flight cancellation should be avoided at all costs. In 2005, Jet Blue broadened their portfolio in entering the market of medium-sized cities, which was served only by regional airlines. They entered this market using a new midsized aircraft called E190. In launching this new machine, they were able to use synergy of combining the A320 and the E190 profitably while serving now smaller and bigger airports. This portfolio mix gives Jet Blue a yet matchless, strategic competitive advantage compared to the other airlines.Their goal now should be to improve the synergy between the two machines and the profitably run their fleet with the optimum amount of aircrafts. 3. Strategy/ structure needed to support the A320 versus the E190; reconcilable differences? ; opportunities for synergy The new developed strategy of Jet Blue was to acquire enough E190 aircrafts to serve medium- sized cities to provide a steady flow of passengers to fill the seats on the longer-haul routes of their A320 aircrafts. A big advantage of this system was that it also worked the other way around.Jet Blue turned out to have an enormous advantage in comparison to the regional airlines, because the E190 had more seats than the traditional RJ. They could use the best option for efficiently serving medium-sized markets while offering passengers more comfort, because they did not had to face limitations on the size of the planes as RJ did. Therefore, Jet Blue has to overcome some essential problems caused by significant differences between these two aircrafts. On the one hand, the E 190 is operated at 12 per cent greater costs than the A320, therefore 34 per cent less costs than for a typical RJ.The E 190 was a great innovation because it could target a wider range of profitable destinations with a greater seating capacity to feed into A320 flights. This results in higher loads and improved economics for Jet Blue. The breakeven load for the E190 of 75-80 per cent was much lower than for the A320, which made is easier to introduce service into new markets. One of the problems is that it takes up to 40 to 50 airplanes before a company benefits from economies of scale. And while taking delivery of the new E190, Jet Blue continued its purchases of A320 aircrafts.Reasons therefore are that this machine had proven to be an extremely reliable machine, and Jet Blue had standardized its operations around this plane. Another concern is the dual certification for pilots . It was simply not feasible for a pilot to simultaneously obtain enough flights as an E190 captain and as an A320 captain. This means pilots could only fly one of the two machines. This brought up another issue: An A320 captain received higher hourly wage rate than an E190 captain.This is why they had to keep pace with the A320 deliveries. The short-haul routes served by the E190 increased revenues but they also increased costs. The reason therefore is as mor e frequent flights required E190 aircrafts to spend more time on the ground than the A320 for taxiing, loading, and unloading between flights because the processes were not standardized yet. This resulted in a disadvantage in accumulating flying hours for pilots, because they get only credit for time spend in the air.Any time spend on the ground was not included. This affected their whole seniority and income availability, which is tied to the number of airplanes they take. Additionally, the E190 has non-skid flooring on the cargo bins as a safety feature to prevent baggage handlers from slipping on the floor while loading and unloading. Although it was intended to be a good thing, it increased loading time and also increased the potential for strains and back sprains as handlers had to lift bags they previously have slid.Also flight attendants had to make significant adjustments. The E 190 had smaller galleys from which to serve customers. The shorter duration of E190 flights provi ded less time for the attendants to provide the high level of service to which jet Blue passengers had become accustomed. The work of the employees in charge of servicing and maintaining Jet Blue? s fleet also increased considerably. They had now two completely different machines to take care of manufactured by different companies. This created additional operating complexity.This is why they decided to invest in maintenance capabilities. The last and most important group affected by the differences between the two machines is customers. Changes in their behavior and expectations are required. Especially concerning to the carry- on baggage, because the storage bins are from different sizes. This means passengers can take the same baggage in one machine as hand luggage, on the other machine they need to check it at the gate. There are enough opportunities for synergy effects.The system of the two machines working together is still in its introductory phase. Once these difficulties an d maintenance and special level of service for the customers are overcome, the synergy should run pretty well as it was intended to be. 4. Efforts of JetBlue to repair damage to its reputation; successful efforts? Necessary/ successful change in CEO? The Valentine ? s Day crisis that would later be referred to as „the worst operational week in JetBlue? s seven-year history,â€Å" began on February 14, 2007 when flights from JFK were heavily booked.Although the snow lingered longer than expected, JetBlue boarded its flights. As the snow turned to freezing rain the FAA prohibited domestic flights from taking off. This winter storm that enveloped the New York metropolitan region and JetBlue’s hub at John F. Kennedy International Airport left hundreds of the company’s passengers stranded aboard planes on the tarmac, some for as many as ten hours. Hundreds more waited in vain in the terminal for flights that the airline would eventually cancel.The flight disruptions at JFK plunged JetBlue’s entire operation into chaos, forcing the carrier to cancel more than one thousand flights over a six day period. In the morning of this Wednesday, JetBlue? s executives and employees had no idea that an operational catastrophe was about to happen, one that would threaten the company’s financial stability and tarnish its otherwise sterling public image. David Neeleman stepped down after the Valentine’s Day incident in 2007 only because his organization failed to deliver on its principles of excellent customer service.To restore its reputation, JetBlue embarked on a bold and unconventional image restoration campaign that included issuing disarmingly candid public apologies and a radical new covenant between the company and its customers called the â€Å"JetBlue Airways Customer Bill of Rights. † The change of management was instituted to help rebuild JetBlue’s tarnished reputation and to develop innovative strategies which wo uld prevent situations like that from ever happening again. The CEO described the bill of rights as a written covenant between the company and its customers.The bill of rights specified in no uncertain terms the monetary compensation customers would receive if JetBlue failed to meet certain performance benchmarks, such as ground delays after landing. The Bill of Rights, allowed JetBlue to strengthen its brand among loyal customers and even those who were affected in the airline’s operational difficulties at JFK and other airports across the country. Additionally, the announcement of the Bill of Rights served as a powerful introduction to countless other air travelers who had yet to fly with the airline.In addition, the Valentine’s Day crisis taught the Corporate Communications group valuable lessons about using the Web and social media. For example, the corporate communication team arranged for Neeleman to appear on more than a dozen television news and talk show progr ams on February 20, including The Today Show and The Late Show with David Letterman. Neeleman had already starred in videos posted to JetBlue’s Web site and YouTube in which he said he was â€Å"humiliated and mortified† by the company’s failures.Through numerous written and spoken mea culpas, Neeleman begged JetBlue’s customers for forgiveness. I feel that JetBlue? s powerful brand, corporate structure, and agility as a smaller airline should enable it to rebound from the Valentine? s Day crisis in 2007 and beyond. Of course, the events that began at JFK will not soon be forgotten by the public or the organization, but the issuance of the JetBlue Airways Customer Bill of Rights and the apologies demonstrated the airline’s commitment to its patrons over the long term, not just in the days and weeks following the onset of the crisis.

Gilgamesh Essays - Epic Of Gilgamesh, Flood Myths, Free Essays

Gilgamesh Essays - Epic Of Gilgamesh, Flood Myths, Free Essays Gilgamesh The search for Everlasting Life Gilgamesh wept over the death of his friend Enkidu. He thought that he was also going to die like his brother. So he went to see Utnapishtim who has everlasting life. So he went out looking for it and came to a great mountain named Mashu. At the front of the moutain stood two men-scorpion. they saw courage and strength in Gilgamesh and let him through the moutains. They told him that in the valley of the moutain was completely dark, and that lasts for twelve leagues. Gilgamesh then proceeded and at the end of the eleven leagues the light began to shine through. He then entered the garden of the gods. There he met Siduri and she told him that he needs to go to Urshanabi the ferryman. Urshanabi then took him to Utnapishtim. Gilgamesh then asked Utnapishtim about life and death. He told Gilgamesh about how he got everlasting life. The return Utnapishtim gave Gilgamesh a test, and it was to not sleep for six days and seven nights. Then Gilgamesh fell asleep then Utnapshtims wife baked a loaf of bread for every day that Gilgamesh was asleep. When Gilgamesh woke he found that he slept for seven days. Utnapishtim told Ursanabi to take Gilgamesh to the water and clean his body and hair and give him new clothes that would look new for his return to Uruk. Urshanabi took Gilgamesh home, but before they left Utnapishtim told Gilgamesh that there is a plant in the sea that will give your youth back. So Gilgamesh went under the sea and got it. On the way back they stopped for rest, and Gilgamesh went for a bath and a serpent took the plant. They then returned to Uruk and wrote a story of the trip on a rock. The Death of Gilgamesh Gilgamesh returned home safely and died. It was his destiny was to be a great king. His destiny was not to achieve everlasting life.

How to Tell if You Are in a Toxic Relationship

How to Tell if You Are in a Toxic Relationship â€Å"Toxic† is not just the name of a famous song by Britney Spears. It’s also a definition of a relationship that brings destruction and sadness. A toxic relationship is something that people often fall into without realizing how bad the situation is. They usually dont even try to escape this cage. Why? Because of love, affection, or fear. But if you feel unhappy with your relationship, its time to change something, and this article will help you understand if you are in a toxic relationship. Why Is It Important to Exit a Toxic Relationship? We all love love, and we all love being loved back. Thats why sometimes people prefer not to pay attention to little details that might ruin the magic of the world that this person has made up. He or she might not see the influence of the partner and their bad attitude because of a subconscious (or conscious) fear of loneliness. This is what makes a toxic relationship even worse – not all people are ready to end this nightmare. A toxic relationship often causes various mental problems – depression, neurosis, and anxiety alongside with low self-esteem or even suicidal thoughts. A relationship should bring joy, a sense of protection, care, and stability. A toxic partner takes all this away, creating an unhealthy atmosphere. The following are the most common signs that your relationship is slowly destroying you. 1. You Always Feel Guilty Guilt, in general, is a healthy emotion that we face throughout our lives. It helps us understand whats right and whats wrong or how to avoid making mistakes in the future. However, a constant sense of guilt is unnatural and unhealthy as it has a bad influence on your self-esteem and your psychological balance. Does your partner always comment on your actions or the way you look, making you feel like you do everything wrong? Then you should make it stop. 2. You Feel Lonely Even When You Are Together A great relationship means that your partner is also your best friend, someone whom you can talk to about anything in the world, who supports you and cares about you. However, if you feel like you are lonely and not understood even after trying to communicate with your partner, you may be involved in a relationship with the wrong person. If being together with your partner doesnt bring you any joy (and especially if it makes you feel worse than being alone), consider ending this relationship. 3. You Dont Share Much with Your Friends and Family Some partners are just too jealous. It can get so extra that it makes you talk less to the people closest to you. Toxic relationships make people distance themselves from their families and friends, which results in losing the chance to get help from people who know you the best. If your partner presses you to give up contacts with your friends and family, it is truly a bad sign. Ask yourself, why does your partner do that to you? Maybe he or she understands that this way you will become more dependent on your relationship. This is a manipulative move that ties you down and limits your freedom. 4. You Feel Emotionally Drained Not all vampires look like Edward from Twilight. Some of them look just like regular people. Of course, we are not talking about the ones who crave blood but about the ones who actually take your energy and will away. Emotional vampires might seem like a myth, but they do exist. They dont have fangs and dont make you fall into some hypnotic sleep. They just exhaust people around them and make people emotionally weak, suppressed, and dependent. By taking your inner calmness away with scandals, blaming, suspicions, and insults, they make you do what they want. Energy vampires might not look as scary as Dracula, but their toxic influence is as dangerous as sharp teeth of any bloodsucking immortal. 5. You Are Careful with What You Say and Do Are you always afraid of making your partner angry with what you say or do? Do your conversations feel more like tipping on your toes? If instead of expressing your thoughts and feelings genuinely, you have to be very careful with your words, that means that you dont have the kind of emotional bond that has to exist in a really deep relationship. Being with someone means understanding the needs of your partner and their experience. If you cant share what bothers you with your significant other, ask yourself if they are really the one who you should be with. 6. You Give up Things that You Like for Your Partner It doesnt matter what it is that your partner makes you give up (a hobby, a friend, a job), its not a good sign. If you like to dance, sing, meet with your friends, visit galleries, or if you have some other hobbies etc., but have to avoid doing it in order not to annoy your partner, this is one of the surefire signs of being in a toxic relationship. 7. You Dont Have Privacy Does your partner check your phone and emails? Does he or she want to spend all your time together? Is he or she against you spending quality time with your friends? If you can recognize your partners behavior in these questions – consider ending this relationship. If there is no trust in a relationship, there is no future for the couple at all. Think about the joy that you are forced to give up when you are not allowed to do what you want. You are in a relationship where you both are equal in rights, so there can be no â€Å"I dont allow you to do that.† Come on! 8. You Are Forced to Do What You Dont Want To A lot of toxic partners are really demanding, especially when it comes to plans, activities, etc. They usually consider your opinion irrelevant and decide everything for you. For example, if you are going to see a movie together, you might suggest some particular film, but in the end you always go see what you partner wanted. It also might be applied to other spheres of life. For example, sexual, social, professional, etc. If you feel like you have no voice in this relationship, its the time for changes. What to Do if You Are Trapped in a Toxic Relationship? Toxic relationships can rarely be fixed, as there is little to no understanding and willingness to change something. If you feel unhappy with your relationship, try to talk to your partner about your feelings. Comminucation is the key! However, if all of your efforts end up a disaster and your partner stays indifferent, dont blame yourself. Basically, what you have to do in this case is end the relationship with the least amount of damage as possible. Its not always easy, as toxic partners usually are afraid of losing the power they have over another person. Sometimes this might lead to aggressive behavior. So, be careful and try to distance yourself as much as possible. Dont fall for provocations and be strong – they might tell you that you wont find anybody else, that they love you like nobody ever will, or that they cant live without you. Your happiness should be the priority #1, and you can be happy, just believe it.

Womens Occupational Distribution in the U.S Essay

Womens Occupational Distribution in the U.S - Essay Example Most particularly, women have been able to take paid jobs. However, they encounter difficulties in balancing between their work and house lives. Under the pressure of the double day, women have put pressure on government and employers to recognize the value of child bearing roles.  Ã‚   Many women strive to attain skills that will help them acquire well paid jobs and better working conditions. Women have also become organized and created movements that break down discriminatory barriers that hinder them from accessing better jobs.   In addition, â€Å"increased participation of women in labor force has spurred women struggles to improve wages and working conditions, and attack head on multiple discrimination they face in the labor force,   from sexual harassment to racism† (Amott and Matthaei 309). This has enabled women to gain financial freedom and avoid dependence on men. A substantial number of women have entered the paid labor force. The work force has ceased from b eing a preservative of white males.   Amott and Matthaei noted â€Å"In 1900, white men made up 72 percent of all workers, but by 1990, their share had fallen to 43 percent† (317).In conclusion, it can be noted that the occupational distribution of women in the United States has a historical background. It has been affected by racial-ethnicity, gender and class statuses. Women in the United States have risen above these challenges and have taken well paid jobs in the labor market. However, the current occupational distribution has in part been influenced.

Change of Social Status of women in society Essay

Change of Social Status of women in society - Essay Example The norms differ culture to culture and religion to religion, however no religion in the world commands degradation of any sex physically or psychologically. The underscore of this dissertation is the story "Another evening at the club" by Alifa Rifaat (1983), revolving around a Muslim girl. The writer skillfully uses the body language and gestures to illustrate the traditions and customs of the family therefore highlighting male dominance in the content. It is an excellent example of women being influenced by men, the role changes from father to husband but the prejudice is intact. The society is constructed of cultural norms, traditions and religious beliefs, illustrating a concept of specific roles for men and women, which are widely accepted often unconsciously. All such principles governing the society, often enforced through social institutions like schools, families and workplaces accentuate ascendancy of men over women. In many areas there is no concern regarding womens education, civil rights, the girls are married off young to men double their ages. Families bearing multiple daughters feel indebted to any suitor that might come to them, especially ones that are not financially secure. As depicted in the story where the suitor asserts a dowry priced in accordance to the young girls beauty. The girls family is showed to be obliged by his gesture. According to the article Social Status of Women (ch.2) such practices are common in various communities; a bride price system quite similar to the dowry system is present in areas of Western hills and Indo-Arya n communities. Similarly another custom called Tilak; in which the brides price is conferred and presented to the grooms family before marriage, is practiced in the Maithili communities of Western Terai. In earlier times the dowry used to consist of simple household supplies and clothes, however in recent times the trends are

Mobiltel Management Case Study Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 3000 words

Mobiltel Management - Case Study Example The study has picked up the business environment in the South-Eastern Europe and has selected Mobiltel as the pivot for analyzing HR management policies and practices. Mobiltel stands to be one of the largest and most reliable Mobile Phone Service providers in Bulgaria, whose origins could be traced to the year 1994. Eventually, it was in September 1995 that Mobiltel was launched commercially in Bulgaria and since then the company has managed to assure a noticeable success and sustenance, while braving the diverse economic, political and organizational crisis and situations that came its way. The suitable, relevant and ever-evolving HRM practices at Mobiltel certainly played a central role in making it a business leader that enjoys the coveted honour of being amongst the top 10 Bulgarian companies. The raw material of the study is the HR management principles and practices adopted by Mobiltel, with an eye on the circumstances under which this was done. The conclusions of the study ar e based on the information gathered through a structured questionnaire and the secondary information culled out through the company sources and independent research. There is no denying the fact that East European corporations and especially the corporations of South-East European origin do face many challenges emanating from local and global circumstances, which do press on their ability to assure sustainability and market leadership. One simply cannot touch on the issue of South-East European business environment, without alluding to the political environment in the region that certainly has a direct impact on the available human resources and their management. The creation of new countries, courtesy the breaking of the erstwhile Eastern Block, the ongoing social fragmentation on the ethnic lines, the inability of the political authorities to materialize the policy and leadership related decisions made in the early 90s has definitely curtailed the outside support and help accessible to the South-East European corporations (Daianu 2000). In such a scenario the economic and corporate reforms only benefitted those regions and corporations that we re in tandem with the ethos of the European Union. The apt management of Human Resources certainly qualifies to be a strategic concern for the more progressive regional success stories and thus deserves all the attention and concern of the academic and corporate circles. In the contemporary

My Growth As A Writer Essay Example for Free

My Growth As A Writer Essay Writing has seemed to be a difficult process for me over the years. This is why it was my choice to enroll myself in creative writing classes over the last 6 years. The most difficult process for me in writing is generating ideas. You can learn to use proper structures for sentences but sadly creativity is something you can learn. In my play, The Doctor and the Patient, I displayed my best writing, and it gives a good example of what I have learned in this class. â€Å"THE PATIENT: Look,  man—we’re all different. Each individual can’t be typed into a group. All minds—souls, even— are different. But we all have something in common: we’re human. And it’s beautiful. † Is an allegory, often used in poetry. Due to the depressed nature of the patient, he finds something that can bring light into his world. Though he is stubborn, and rejects medicating and therapy sessions, he finds a false sense of security. My style of writing is usually freeform, in my spare time I usually write  post-apocalyptic situations, dark comedy, or serious. I have grown majorly at imagery and developing characters and dialogue. The tone of my writing is usually mellow, and flows rather quickly. And I have learned to construct a story arc that does not change too erratically. Future goals of mine would to get a few of my works published in a few small newsletters. Overall, I think my writing has improved drastically, I have learned how to style many different types of stories and writings.